I finally completed the Mystery Stole 3 catching myself up with a hirlwind of lace knitting. I finished clue #3 while I was in/on my way towards Madison:
I finished clue #4 on the way back/once home:
Then, while flying through the last clues I discovered my own vindication! I was right about the water based theme: Swan Lake. Now, since the only part of the stole that represents a swan is the very end, I see no way for anyone to have guessed the Swan half of this theme. However, I do recall being very certain that water was involved, and lo and behold there it is. Once again proof of my superior deductive skills. Here is the rest of the stole: